Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 156.44 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had significantly moved downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential—especially after the pair's rise during the Asian session. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Later, another test of 156.44 occurred, coinciding with the MACD being in the oversold zone, which allowed the implementation of Scenario #2 for buying. However, as seen on the chart, this did not lead to any positive results.

Today, we expect data on the weekly initial jobless claims in the US and a speech from President Donald Trump. The data on weekly jobless claims will provide insights into the state of the labor market. An increase in claims may raise additional concerns about the economy's ability to adapt to new realities. Additionally, against the backdrop of economic indicators, President Trump's speech is scheduled. As always, he is expected to emphasize the importance of jobs and the need to sustain economic growth. Many anticipate that Trump might provide updates on the tariffs he has been threatening since his victory last fall. This could strengthen the dollar's position and further weaken the yen.

For intraday strategies, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 to continue the downward trend.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches 156.60 (green line on the chart) with a target of 157.13 (thicker green line on the chart). At 157.13, I will exit my buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pair's rise can only be expected after new statements from Trump.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 156.33 price level, with the MACD in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 156.60 and 157.13.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 156.33 level (red line on the chart) is breached, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.83, where I will exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair is likely today within the framework of the ongoing correction.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 156.60 price level, with the MACD in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 156.33 and 155.83.

Chart Details:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is crucial to monitor overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders on the Forex market must exercise extreme caution when making market entries. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice proper money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.