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02.04.2024 09:08 AMDollar surged in price during the holidays in Europe. Usually, markets patiently await the opening of trading sessions, but it moved at the moment when business activity data in the manufacturing sector came out. The Markit reported a decrease in the index from 52.2 points to 51.9 points, while the ISM showed an increase from 47.8 points to 50.3 points. Logically, if both indices move in opposite directions, they should offset each other, and the market should remain in balance. However, market players ignored the Markit data, while the ISM data appeared to be exaggerated. In addition, many believe that the two serves as a formal pretext, whereas the main focus will be the upcoming report on inflation in the eurozone. Confidence about the easing of rates by the European Central Bank grew, and the inflation data will be the final confirmation of this assumption. Markets have begun to prepare in advance, and there may be a chance that dollar will continue to strengthen its position.
EUR/USD, during an intense decline, almost reached the support level of 1.0700. This indicates a prevailing downward sentiment, which allows for a movement toward the level of 1.0700. However, such a price change over a short period of time already led to local oversold conditions of euro in the short term, so a technical rebound may occur.
In GBP/USD, the intense strengthening of dollar positions led to a breakthrough of the support level of 1.2600, leaving behind signals of pound's oversold condition. However, the price may hit the level of 1.2500, where a technical rebound could occur.
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