Trade Breakdown and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.16 level coincided with the MACD just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which, in a bearish trend, confirmed a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped to the target level of 146.33.

The Japanese yen continues to see strong demand as a safe-haven asset following yesterday's tariffs announced by Donald Trump. Investors, concerned about a potential slowdown in global economic growth due to the trade war, are seeking the safety and stability traditionally provided by the yen. This trend is likely to persist as long as uncertainty around global trade remains.

Today's data includes U.S. weekly initial jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI. Only a strong services sector can rescue the dollar from another sell-off against the yen.

For intraday strategy, I'll primarily rely on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 146.84 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 147.91 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.91, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A bullish correction may support this upward move. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 145.95 level, when the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit downward potential and may prompt a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 146.84 and 147.91 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 145.95 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp drop in the pair. The primary target for sellers will be 144.72, where I plan to exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important: Before selling, confirm that the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 146.84 level while MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential and may result in a downward reversal toward 145.95 and 144.72.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit or manual profit-taking level; further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit or manual profit-taking level; further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – Use overbought and oversold zones to guide market entries

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of key fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always place Stop Loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without Stop Losses, you could lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one provided above. Making spontaneous trade decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.