Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 149.49 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 60 pips, breaking through the target level of 150.11.

However, today, pressure on the dollar has returned, and the yen has significantly strengthened. Yesterday, it was announced that the US would impose a 24% tariff on all imports from Japan. However, as the chart shows, the yen appeared to be prepared for this — there was virtually no reaction to the new tariffs.

Given the ongoing tension in US-Japan relations and the American president's campaign statements, the markets may have priced in such a scenario in advance. Another possibility is that Japanese exporters had already adapted to potential restrictions by adjusting supply chains or signing advance contracts. The long-term impact of these tariffs on the Japanese economy will undoubtedly be significant. Retaliatory tariffs and reduced export volumes to the US may lead to a decline in industrial output and, as a result, a slowdown in economic growth.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 147.68 (green line on the chart), with a target at 148.50 (thicker green line). Around 148.50, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips). It's best to re-enter long positions during corrections or significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair tests the 147.16 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and result in an upward market reversal. A move toward 147.68 and 148.50 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a confirmed break below 147.16 (red line on the chart), which would likely result in a sharp decline. The main target for sellers will be 146.33, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open long positions (expecting a 20–25 pip retracement). Bearish pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.68 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 147.16 and 146.33 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.