See also
27.01.2025 01:45 PMThe test of the 1.2462 price level coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which clearly limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The test of 1.2439 also did not allow me to enter the market to sell the pound, as the MACD indicator was far from the zero mark at the time of the level update.
Today's U.S. housing market data can serve as an important indicator of the overall state of the economy and consumer sentiment. An increase in new home sales volumes usually signals growing demand for real estate, which, in turn, can support construction activity and contribute to job creation. This positive dynamic could favor the dollar, especially if the figures exceed analysts' forecasts. Experts note that while the primary housing market is not a key factor for currency trading, its indicators can influence long-term economic trends. Expectations of strong data, such as increased sales, may boost investor confidence in the U.S. economy and support the dollar, which has lost some of its dominance since Trump assumed office as U.S. president. However, it is important to consider that poor figures could have the opposite effect, potentially weakening the dollar and allowing the pound to continue its rally.
For intraday strategies, I will rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the 1.2524 level (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.2574 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.2574 level, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction. Expecting the pound to rise today aligns with the continuation of the bullish trend.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.2490 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.2524 and 1.2574.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after breaking below the 1.2490 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2438 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction. Sellers will likely emerge if U.S. statistics are strong.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.2524 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2490 and 1.2438 can be expected.
Beginner traders must exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
