08.04.2025 07:45 PM
紐元/美元貨幣對正試圖重新獲得正向動能，受到美國美元重新拋售的支持。然而，考慮到基本面因素，建議看漲交易者需謹慎行事。
投資者似乎有信心，由於關稅驅動的美國經濟放緩將很快迫使聯邦儲備局恢復降息循環。市場已經預計到年底至少會有四次降息。這一點，結合改善的全球風險情緒，正阻止作為避險貨幣的美元從其近期的反彈中受益，這反過來支持了對風險敏感的新西蘭元。
此外，有報導稱中國正考慮採取預防性刺激措施以緩解關稅影響，這也有助於提升澳紐貨幣，包括紐元。目前，紐元/美元貨幣對已結束了兩天連續下跌，暫停在心理0.5500水準附近。然而，由於美中貿易戰的升級，該貨幣對的上行仍然有限。
特朗普對所有進口商品徵收至少10%的對等關稅，這導致中國徵收54%的稅率。他還威脅稱，若中國不取消報復性關稅，將追加50%的關稅。在這種情況下，等待更強勁的後續買盤以確認紐元/美元貨幣對已觸底並準備好短期反彈是謹慎的做法。
從技術角度來看，該貨幣對迄今未能突破0.5595關卡。此外，日線圖上的震盪指標仍牢牢處於負值區域，意味著最小阻力路徑仍然向下。
交易者還建議在週三的聯邦公開市場委員會會議紀要發布之前，避免進行激進的押注。此外，定於週四和週五發布的消費者物價指數（CPI）和生產者物價指數（PPI）將是評估美聯儲下一步行動的重要指標，並可能對短期美元價格動態產生重大影響，從而影響到紐元/美元貨幣對。
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