02.12.2024 06:52 AM儘管歐元區的年通脹率從2.0%加速至2.3%，歐元未能上升，甚至有所減弱。儘管跌幅有限，這仍然顯得不合常理。問題在於，大多數市場參與者專注於媒體突出的大數據，而這些媒體往往更強調月度數據而非年度數據。結果表明，雖然年通脹率上升，但按月度計算的消費者價格卻下降了0.3%。
從宏觀經濟分析的角度來看，年度數據更具有意義，因為它不容易受到季節性波動的影響。另一方面，由於這些季節性因素，月度數據可能顯得相當奇怪，使得基於這些數據得出的結論根本上有缺陷。值得注意的是，所有主要中央銀行的報告和會議紀要專門提到年度通脹，而不是月度變化。因此，歐洲中央銀行的決策將基於年度通脹加速至2.3%，而不是0.3%的月度價格下跌。然而，目前媒體給人的印象是，ECB可能會繼續降低利率。
這種看法可能會進一步加強，因為勞動力市場數據的支持。根據預測，歐元區的失業率預計將從6.3%上升到6.4%。因此，歐元可能會進一步小幅下跌。
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*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。
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