25.11.2024 07:26 AM歐元區的初步 PMI 數據帶來了負面驚訝。所有指標不增反降。服務業 PMI 從 51.6 降至 49.2（預期為 52.0），製造業 PMI 預期從 46.0 上升至 46.2，但實際下降至 45.2。因此，綜合 PMI 從 50.0 降至 48.1（預期為 50.3）。最令人擔憂的是，所有指數現在都暗示經濟衰退的開始。不出所料，此數據公佈後，歐元繼續下跌。
之後，在美國公佈類似數據時，市場反彈至歐元區數據前的水平，這令人意外，因為美國的結果更為強勁。製造業 PMI 讓人略感失望，從 48.5 上升至 48.8（預期為 49.2）。然而，這被服務業 PMI 的大幅攀升所彌補，從 55.0 上升至 57.0（預期為 55.1）。因此，綜合 PMI 從 54.1 上升至 55.3（預期為 54.3）。
根據這些結果，市場的反彈和回到先前的水平似乎不合邏輯。美元應該會繼續走強。這種明顯的矛盾很可能源於美元已經處於顯著的超買狀態。考慮到美元的超買狀態以及日曆上沒有重大宏觀經濟事件，歐元今天可能會有一定的回升。
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*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。
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